An underdog’s path to the College Football Playoff

It was early November, 2017 and the Auburn Tigers were standing at 7-2 on the year, ranked No. 10 in the country according to the College Football Playoff poll prior to their last three games of the regular season, all at home against Georgia, Louisiana Monroe, and Alabama.

There wasn’t a lot of hope circulating around the Auburn fan base at the time. The Tigers had long been left for dead after suffering two losses on the season, a 14-6 defeat on the road to No. 3 Clemson in early September, but their most recent loss was another road game, this time in Baton Rouge when LSU beat Auburn, 27-23 in October, 2017.

But the Tigers not only took the college football world by storm at the end of the 2017 season, they did so in dominating fashion by defeating both Georgia and Alabama by double-digit scores.

Excluding the team itself, no one gave Auburn much of a chance at victory against their two hated rivals in 2017’s version of Amen Corner.

The same Auburn fans complaining about Auburn’s two losses were now celebrating the No. 2, but this time it was Auburn’s final ranking of the 2017 regular season according to the all-important College Football Playoff poll.

In fact, had two-loss Auburn not had to play in Atlanta for the SEC Championship, rest assured their playoff tickets were already punched.

But just to reiterate so that you hear me loud and clear — a two-loss, 7-2 Auburn team, ranked No. 10 in the country in mid-November, 2017, closed out the season with home wins over Georgia and Alabama to become the hottest team in college football, ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff poll prior to conference championship games.

After finishing the 2017 regular season at 10-2, Auburn was clearly in position to make its first ever playoff, but the Tigers still had one game remaining, a rematch with Georgia in The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, SEC Championship game edition.

However, if the Tigers were going to secure the bag that was a playoff birth by beating Georgia for a second time, they were going to have to do so without their best player, 2017 SEC Offensive Player of the Year, former Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson, who had suffered a shoulder injury in the fourth-quarter of the Iron Bowl.

The driving force behind Auburn’s late season run, Johnson tried to give it a go in the SEC Championship game but was a shell of his former healthy self, who had scorched the Bulldogs for 233 offensive yards from scrimmage in Auburn’s regular season, 40-17 beat-down of Georgia.

In fact, UGA not only avenged their earlier loss to Auburn, defeating the Tigers, 28-7 in the SEC Championship game, but the win meant the Bulldogs had just secured the program’s first ever birth in the College Football Playoff.

But Georgia wasn’t the only team from the conference that went to the playoffs that year. In fact, it was the first time two teams from the SEC got in. Lurking in the shadows after their 11-point loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Alabama still made the playoffs without even having to play an extra game in Atlanta like Auburn and Georgia.

After conference championships were decided, there was a lot of debate on whether two SEC teams could make it into the 2017 CFB Playoff, specifically Georgia and Alabama. However, the committee’s main objective is to select the four best teams in the country and in hindsight, they obviously got it right considering the Bulldogs and Tide advanced to the national championship game that Alabama won in dramatic fashion, 26-23 in overtime.

Like 2017, I expect the SEC will get two conference teams into the 2019 College Football Playoff.

And Auburn certainly has a chance to be one of those two SEC teams IF the Tigers are able to duplicate their feats of 2017 by defeating both Georgia and Alabama inside Jordan-Hare Stadium to finish the season 10-2 vs. what ESPN calls the “toughest overall Power 5 schedule.”

And Auburn of 2019 can become the Alabama of 2017 by making the playoffs without hoisting the SEC Championship trophy.

Currently, it’s November, 2019 and ironically, the Auburn Tigers stand at 7-2 on the year, ranked No. 12 in the country according to the latest College Football Playoff poll prior to their last three games of the regular season, all at home against Georgia, Samford, and Alabama.

Don’t forget about Auburn. The Tigers now have a chance to get two top-FIVE wins in the eyes of the committee, vs. Georgia and Bama. And they could have a win over the Pac-12 champs. Hmmm …

— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) November 13, 2019

But first things first as the 124th edition of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry awaits the Tigers this Saturday at 2:30 pm/c, hosted by The Loveliest Village on the Plains. And like 2017, Auburn is a 2.5 point home underdog to the Bulldogs, who along with Alabama are Top-5 teams according to the CFB Playoff committee, again, just like 2017.

One of the blessings in disguise for Auburn in always playing one of the country’s most difficult schedules, is you can afford a couple of mulligans along the way, especially if they come on the road against Top-10 teams like the Tigers’ two losses have this season.

In fact, the most recent College Football Playoff poll released Tuesday evening on 11/12/19 is clear evidence of just how unbelievably daunting and opportunistic Auburn’s 2019 schedule is. The Tigers literally have a murderer’s row of monumental matchups against the best teams college football has to offer this season — Auburn plays (1. LSU, 4. UGA, 5. Bama, 6. Oregon) four of the Top-6 teams in the College Football Playoff poll — the only squad in the country shouldered with such a gantlet.

Despite having the toughest schedule in the country, Auburn has proven capable of going toe-to-toe with the best teams in the nation. The Tigers have already defeated (8-1) Oregon, 27-20 on a neutral field to start the season.

And consider this when comparing Auburn’s schedule to other possible playoff contenders, like Oregon for example. The Ducks are currently ranked No. 6 in the CFB Playoff poll, but they have only one single current Top-25 team on their entire 2019 schedule — Auburn — the only team the Ducks suffered a loss to. If the committee truly studies the strength of schedules, I believe they should favor a two-loss Auburn team over a one-loss Oregon squad, especially considering the head-to-head matchup.

Auburn should not be penalized for playing such a demanding schedule, but on the contrary, the Tigers should be rewarded IF they’re able to do the improbable by defeating both Georgia and Alabama, finishing the season with a 3-1 record versus four of the committee’s Top-6 teams.

After all, Auburn was the team who marched into Death Valley this season and held LSU’s new high-powered offense to a measly 23 points. Problem is, Auburn’s offense sputtered to only 20 points of their own despite a Herculean effort from its championship-caliber defense. After the narrow three-point loss to the Bayou Bengals in Red Stick, Auburn can unequivocally make the argument that they can compete and beat LSU in a rematch on a neutral field. Who knows, maybe Auburn matches up with LSU better than any other team in the land, but then again, we’re getting ahead of ourselves because a rematch would have to take place in the playoff.

And if Auburn is to have any hopes of earning the school’s first ever playoff birth, they‘ll first have to go through Georgia and Alabama. But like 2017, the Tigers have the reassurance of knowing they’ll be accompanied by 87,451 of their closest friends who will be exerting every ounce of positive energy in their direction, while giving Georgia and Alabama absolute hell in the process.

Georgia beat writer Mike Griffith recently predicted that Georgia would plow right through the Tigers, calling Auburn “a dead man walking.”

CBS national college football writer Barrett Sallee said as a matter of fact and doubled and tripled-down on his prediction that, “Auburn will not even be competitive against Georgia.”

The Tigers are used to being doubted by the college football world. Auburn has grown accustomed to being the underdog, tossed aside as a team who can’t quite get over the proverbial hump. But if recent history is any indication, the Auburn Tigers are at their best when the rest of the country expects their worst, especially when they’re playing at home inside an absolute juiced-up Jordan-Hare in front of the best fans in the country. War Eagle!